Monte Carlo simulation
World Cup 2026 Champion Odds
10,000 full-tournament simulations using Elo (FIFA rank) + Poisson goals. Each match is sampled from our prediction model, group stage and knockout included. Updated as teams are added or removed.
Mexico18.9%Tournament winner
| # | Team | Grp | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | 18.9 | |
| 2 | C | 13.7 | |
| 3 | E | 10.8 | |
| 4 | B | 8.6 | |
| 5 | F | 8.1 | |
| 6 | G | 6.6 | |
| 7 | E | 6.2 | |
| 8 | D | 5.8 | |
| 9 | H | 5.1 | |
| 10 | F | 4.9 | |
| 11 | C | 4.2 | |
| 12 | G | 3.1 | |
| 13 | B | 1.8 | |
| 14 | D | 1.0 | |
| 15 | A | 0.9 | |
| 16 | H | 0.2 | |
| 17 | A | 0.0 | |
| 18 | A | 0.0 | |
| 19 | B | 0.0 | |
| 20 | B | 0.0 | |
| 21 | C | 0.0 | |
| 22 | C | 0.0 | |
| 23 | D | 0.0 | |
| 24 | D | 0.0 | |
| 25 | E | 0.0 | |
| 26 | E | 0.0 | |
| 27 | F | 0.0 | |
| 28 | F | 0.0 | |
| 29 | G | 0.0 | |
| 30 | G | 0.0 | |
| 31 | H | 0.0 | |
| 32 | H | 0.0 | |
| 33 | I | 0.0 | |
| 34 | I | 0.0 | |
| 35 | I | 0.0 | |
| 36 | I | 0.0 | |
| 37 | J | 0.0 | |
| 38 | J | 0.0 | |
| 39 | J | 0.0 | |
| 40 | J | 0.0 | |
| 41 | K | 0.0 | |
| 42 | K | 0.0 | |
| 43 | K | 0.0 | |
| 44 | K | 0.0 | |
| 45 | L | 0.0 | |
| 46 | L | 0.0 | |
| 47 | L | 0.0 | |
| 48 | L | 0.0 |
Our model vs Onside Arena
Onside data → onsidearena.com/dataSide-by-side champion probability for the top 12 contenders. Our model uses Elo + Poisson over 10,000 Monte Carlo runs; Onside Arena uses logistic opponent-rating with FIFA rank, Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and confederation strength (5,000 runs).
| # | Team | Grp | Go OpenField | Onside | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | A | 18.9 | 3.0 | +15.8 |
| 2 |  Brazil | C | 13.7 | 8.7 | +5.0 |
| 3 |  Germany | E | 10.8 | 3.9 | +7.0 |
| 4 |  Switzerland | B | 8.6 | 0.6 | +8.0 |
| 5 |  Netherlands | F | 8.1 | 2.3 | +5.8 |
| 6 |  Belgium | G | 6.6 | 4.7 | +1.9 |
| 7 |  Ivory Coast | E | 6.2 | 0.0 | +6.2 |
| 8 |  United States | D | 5.8 | 2.3 | +3.4 |
| 9 |  Spain | H | 5.1 | 15.0 | -10.0 |
| 10 |  Japan | F | 4.9 | 0.4 | +4.6 |
| 11 |  Morocco | C | 4.2 | 1.4 | +2.8 |
| 12 |  Egypt | G | 3.1 | 0.0 | +3.1 |
Onside Arena data licensed CC-BY-4.0. Refreshed daily alongside our own simulation.
Most controversial picks
The 5 biggest disagreements between our model and Onside Arena. We tend to over-rate teams in weaker groups (Group A in particular) and under-rate elite teams in tough ones — group-stage luck isn’t fully discounted.
FranceWe under-rate
EnglandWe under-rateMexicoWe over-rate
ArgentinaWe under-rateSpainWe under-rateOnside data: onsidearena.com/data · CC-BY-4.0
Round of X probability
Likelihood of each team reaching each stage.
- Mexico28%
South Korea27%- Germany24%
- Morocco21%
- Brazil20%
Canada14%- Switzerland13%
Turkey10%
Ecuador44%- Mexico43%
- South Korea42%
- Ivory Coast41%
- Japan38%
- Netherlands37%
- Canada33%
- Morocco29%
Iran80%- Ivory Coast74%
- Brazil73%
- South Korea66%
- Belgium64%
- Mexico64%
- Ecuador63%
Scotland56%
Dark horse spotlight
The 0.8–5% tier — too strong to call a long shot, too rare to be a realistic contender. These are the teams that could author the tournament’s most memorable story.
JapanDark horseMoroccoDark horseEgyptDark horseCanadaSleeperTurkeyLong shot
South AfricaLong shotMost likely bracket
The single most likely outcome of every match, from Round of 32 to the Final. Winner of each matchup is shown in green.
Mexico54%Germany46%Switzerland56%Japan44%Brazil72%Egypt28%United States84%
Cape Verde16%Ivory Coast74%South Africa26%Netherlands71%Canada29%Belgium56%Morocco44%Spain70%Turkey30%South Korea60%Canada40%
Bosnia and Herzegovina22%Morocco78%Scotland44%Turkey56%
Australia46%Germany54%Ecuador54%Japan46%
Sweden51%Egypt49%Iran83%Cape Verde17%
Saudi Arabia56%South Africa44%Mexico60%Switzerland40%Brazil64%United States36%Ivory Coast41%Netherlands59%Belgium52%Spain48%South Korea46%Morocco54%Turkey49%Germany51%Ecuador67%Sweden33%Iran80%Saudi Arabia20%Mexico52%Brazil48%Netherlands58%Belgium42%Morocco59%Germany41%Ecuador55%Iran45%Mexico53%Netherlands47%Morocco67%Ecuador33%Mexico52%Morocco48%Methodology: 10,000 full-tournament simulations. Each match sampled from the prediction model: 3-way moneyline (Elo + draw factor) + Poisson goals. Group stage runs all 72 group matches; knockout rounds use standard FIFA bracket structure. Real finished match results are kept (deterministic), remaining matches are simulated.
Simulation completed in 2805ms · For entertainment only. Not betting advice.